Washington, Mar.8 (SANA) International warnings are intensifying over the consequences of the continuing military escalation in the Middle East on global grain supplies.
A significant share of global grain trade depends on maritime routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears about rising food inflation as supply chains face disruptions and shipping and energy costs increase.
Estimates issued by commodity analytics firm Kpler indicated strong signs of severe bottlenecks in grain supply chains, with direct impacts on countries that rely heavily on imports transported through the strategic strait.
The company said that the consequences of the crisis will not be uniform across the region.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates possess alternative ports outside the Arabian Gulf, granting them greater flexibility in securing wheat and corn supplies compared with countries that remain more vulnerable to disruptions.
Risks of rising food inflation
In this context, S&P Global Commodity Insights expects that an expansion of the conflict in the Middle East could increase the risk of global food price inflation.
The firm said the surge in fuel, shipping and fertilizer prices—factors closely linked to agricultural production and global transportation costs—could further pressure food markets.
Iran, one of the world’s major grain importers, faces compounded challenges in this regard.
Domestic production of wheat and corn covers only part of its growing demand, while the country relies heavily on imports, most of which pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making its food security vulnerable to any disruption in maritime traffic through the strait.
Warning of a potential global “food shock”
Meanwhile, ING Global Markets warned that continued escalation could trigger a broader shock in global food markets.
The warning comes as rising energy costs and disruptions in logistics services threaten to reignite inflationary pressures in importing countries, particularly fragile economies.
The company stressed that geopolitical risks have become a decisive factor shaping the relationship between food, energy and shipping markets.
Such dynamics could push global food consumer price indices to elevated levels during 2026, analysts noted.
Volatility in global energy markets
Global energy markets are also heading toward a period of sharp volatility.
The escalation involving the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other has disrupted nearly one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies.
This follows attacks targeting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and strikes against vital energy infrastructure across the region.
As a result, oil prices have risen by about 24% within a single week, reflecting the sensitivity of global markets to any further escalation.
Analysts argue that if these dynamics persist, governments and central banks may face difficult choices between supporting food and energy prices to protect vulnerable populations or allowing prices to rise freely—an outcome that could intensify inflationary pressures and affect economic growth.
Calls for international coordination
In light of these developments, international organizations are advocating for stronger coordination between grain-producing and importing countries.
They also recommend developing alternative shipping routes and expanding strategic reserves as precautionary measures aimed at mitigating potential shocks in global markets.
A/Dh
