Damascus, Mar.27 (SANA) The repercussions of the ongoing war in the Middle East continue to affect global markets, particularly food supply chains, as wheat prices have recorded significant increases due to rising shipping and insurance costs following the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway for exporting nitrogen fertilizers and ammonia, which account for nearly one-third of global exports.
International organizations have warned of a severe food crisis threatening the upcoming planting season in the Northern Hemisphere due to shortages in agricultural inputs.
According to global market data, wheat prices have risen amid concerns over shrinking cultivated areas and lower production in the next season, with expectations that the war will push farmers to shift to alternative crops and reduce land allocated for wheat.
Planting Season at Risk
The World Food Programme warned of “catastrophic” consequences for farmers in developing countries. WFP Deputy Executive Director Carl Skau said during a press conference in Geneva that poor farmers in the Northern Hemisphere rely heavily on food imports and agricultural inputs from the Gulf region, noting that the current shortage coincides with the start of the planting season.
“In the worst-case scenario, this could mean reduced production next season or even crop failure,” Skau said, adding that even in the best-case scenario, rising input costs will drive up food prices next year.
Most Affected Countries
Raj Patel, food systems economist at the University of Texas, said Ethiopia depends on more than 90 percent of its grain and agricultural imports arriving through Djibouti from the Gulf region. He explained that supply chains were already strained before the war erupted in February, and that the current planting season is facing severe shortages.
Joseph Glauber, senior fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, warned that current grain prices remain low compared to previous periods, narrowing profit margins for farmers. He said this could push U.S. farmers to shift to other crops or reduce wheat acreage, leading to lower production and higher food prices for consumers.
In U.S. markets, a survey by Allendale agricultural research showed an expected decline in wheat planted acreage due to supply chain disruptions. The survey, published on March 18, estimated planted area at 44.877 million acres, with spring wheat planting expected to hit its lowest level in decades.
Helios AI, a company specializing in agricultural supply chain analytics, warned that global food prices could rise between 12 and 18 percent above pre-crisis levels by the end of 2026, even if the conflict ends immediately. Co-founder Francisco Martin Rayo said prices are likely to reach even higher levels during the first half of 2027.
Impact on Emerging Markets
The effects of the war have extended to emerging markets that rely on grain imports from the Gulf region via the Strait of Hormuz. In Arab markets, wheat and essential commodity prices have surged due to supply disruptions, exacerbated by a sharp rise in war risk insurance premiums in the Gulf, jumping from 0.25 percent to nearly 10 percent of vessel value, according to Lloyd’s List estimates published on March 12, 2026, leading to higher shipping costs and delays in vital shipments.
Experts say global food prices could rise significantly through 2026 and into 2027, even if the conflict ends soon.
MHD
