Capitals, March 21 (SANA) Disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East are expected to deepen a global fertilizer crisis, raising the risk of further increases in food prices, particularly in developing economies.
Economists and international institutions have warned that disruptions to fertilizer supply chains, combined with rising energy costs, could undermine recent economic recovery in emerging markets following the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, according to a Reuters report.
Odile Renaud-Basso, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, said the developments could have a significant impact on food prices. Estimates by Moody’s show that food and fuel account for between 30% and 50% of inflation baskets in emerging markets, compared with less than a quarter in advanced economies.
Fertilizer supply chains under pressure
Fertilizers are central to the current crisis, with a large share of global supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz, where tensions have been rising. Gulf countries are key producers of essential inputs such as ammonia and urea.
Any disruption to supply could affect a significant portion of the global market, at a time when prices have already increased, raising agricultural production costs.
Maximo Torero, chief economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization, warned that a prolonged crisis could reduce output of grains and animal feed, leading to higher prices for meat and dairy products.
Developing countries face greater risks
Developing countries are expected to be most affected, as food and fuel make up a large share of household spending, while many depend on fertilizer imports without maintaining strategic reserves.
Reports indicate sharp increases in fertilizer prices in parts of Africa and Asia, threatening agricultural seasons and adding pressure on farmers and governments.
While some countries have domestic production capacity or diversified supply sources, the broader impact of the crisis is expected to spread through global markets.
From energy to food inflation
The crisis has been driven initially by rising energy prices, which have increased production and transport costs. Reduced fertilizer availability may lower crop yields, particularly for staple crops such as wheat and corn, while higher feed costs could push up prices of meat, poultry and bread.
The developments have raised concerns about a return of global food inflation, which has previously been associated with social unrest. Governments are considering preventive measures, while international institutions are exploring emergency support for the most affected countries.
Calls are growing for coordinated international action to secure fertilizer supplies, support supply chains and strengthen the resilience of developing economies, amid warnings that a prolonged crisis could worsen global food insecurity.
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