Syria’s post- war reconstruction costs are estimated at $216 billion as the 13-year war damaged nearly one third of the country’s pre-conflict gross capital stock, according to a new World Bank report. The Syria Physical Damage and Reconstruction Assessment 2011-2024 presents the results of a rapid nationwide assessment across infrastructure and building assets, covering the period from 2011 to 2024. All estimates are in U.S. dollars.
The conflict has damaged nearly one-third of Syria’s pre-conflict gross capital stock, with direct physical damages to infrastructure, residential buildings, and non-residential buildings estimated at $108 billion. Among the categories assessed, infrastructure was the hardest hit, accounting for 48 percent of total damage ($52 billion), followed by residential buildings ($33 billion) and non-residential buildings ($23 billion). The governorates of Aleppo, Rif Dimashq, and Homs were the most severely affected in terms of total damage.
Reconstruction costs of damaged physical assets are projected to range between $140 billion and $345 billion, with a conservative best estimate of $216 billion. This includes $75 billion for residential buildings, $59 billion for non-residential structures, and $82 billion for infrastructure. The governorates of Aleppo and Rif Dimashq are expected to require the most significant reconstruction investments.
“The challenges ahead are immense, but the World Bank stands ready to work alongside the Syrian people and the international community to support recovery and reconstruction,” said Jean-Christophe Carret, World Bank Middle East Division Director. “Collective commitment, coordinated action, and a comprehensive, structured support program are critical to helping Syria on its path to recovery and long-term development.”
The estimated physical reconstruction costs are nearly ten times Syria’s projected 2024 GDP, underscoring the scale of the challenge and the immense need for international support. The conflict has devastated Syria’s economy, with real GDP declining by nearly 53 percent between 2010 and 2022. In nominal terms, GDP (current US$) contracted from $67.5 billion in 2011 to an estimated $21.4 billion in 2024, as per Syria Macro-Fiscal Assessment published earlier this year.
“This report provides a critical baseline of the massive scale of the destruction and of the reconstruction costs ahead”, said H.E. Yisr Barnieh, Syria’s Minister of Finance. “Now, more than ever, it is imperative for the international community to mobilize support and partnership to help Syria restore essential infrastructure, revitalize communities, and lay the foundation for a more resilient future for its people.”
Given the protracted conflict and related methodological constraints, the report findings are subject to significant uncertainty. The report does not provide detailed disaggregation by sectors or more detailed asset types. It is intended to provide an estimate of the overall scale of damage and reconstruction costs, and to inform discussions on recovery planning.
The assessment was prepared with financial and technical support from the World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR).
