Capitals, May 22 (SANA) Barclays has maintained its forecast for Brent crude at an average of $100 per barrel, citing persistent geopolitical tensions and tightening supply conditions that continue to support the oil market despite recent volatility.
The bank said Brent was trading near $105 a barrel, with prices underpinned by uncertainty surrounding US–Iran negotiations and concerns over possible disruptions to critical shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the note cited in a Reuters report, around one-fifth of global energy flows historically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making it one of the most strategically sensitive chokepoints in the global oil trade. Barclays warned that recent developments have already contributed to notable supply disruptions from key producers in the region.
The report estimated that global oil markets are currently experiencing a daily supply deficit of between 6 million and 8 million barrels, while US crude inventories have fallen close to their lowest levels since 2020.
Even under a scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz were fully reopened and flows normalized, Barclays said stock levels would still remain significantly constrained, sitting well below historical averages.
The bank also noted that global demand for oil has remained relatively resilient, suggesting that any slowdown in industrial activity could be offset if supply conditions stabilize.
Oil prices, however, edged lower by around 2% in the previous trading session, reflecting investor uncertainty over diplomatic developments linked to the US–Israeli–Iranian tensions and their potential impact on global energy flows.
kA.RK
