Paris, March 26 (SANA) The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) issued a stark warning on Thursday, stating that the global economy is being knocked off its path of robust growth due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The organization highlighted that the near-total halt of energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz now poses a direct threat, likely driving inflation rates sharply higher.
In a statement cited by Reuters, the OECD noted that the global economy was previously on track to achieve stronger-than-expected growth. However, those prospects have “vanished” following the outbreak and expansion of the current war.
Revised Growth Projections
The OECD’s Interim Economic Outlook now projects global GDP growth to slow from 3.3% last year to 2.9% in 2026, before a slight recovery to 3% in 2027. This downward pressure stems from soaring energy prices and the unpredictable nature of the conflict, which have effectively neutralized positive drivers such as: Strong investments in the technology sector, recent reductions in international customs duties, and residual economic momentum carried over from 2025.
The organization revealed that prior to the conflict, early indicators suggested a potential 0.3 percentage point upward revision for 2026. The war has since eliminated the possibility of that adjustment.
Inflationary Shock in the G20
The surge in energy costs is expected to hit the world’s largest economies the hardest. For the G20, the OECD forecasts that inflation will be 1.2 percentage points higher than originally estimated for 2026, reaching a projected 4% before potentially cooling to 2.7% in 2027.
Technical Assumptions and Recovery
The report’s forecasts are based on a technical analysis assuming that energy market disruptions will eventually subside. Under this model, the OECD expects a gradual decline in the prices of oil, gas, and fertilizers starting from mid-2026 onwards. However, this recovery remains entirely contingent on the containment of regional hostilities and the reopening of vital maritime energy corridors.
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